New Equity World

I envision a world of trading that is much different from today.

Company valuations rise and fall by human emotions as opposed to business facts. The current state of human thought cannot comprehend all business in the way they should be properly valued(cash flows, profitability, and price). A business valuation should not be determined by thoughts/preceptions(our preceptions rarely correspond with reality, humans consistently make mistakes its in our nature) but by facts.

Humans are increasingly unstable, lack original thought processes, and the ability to make clear judgement. Judgement is skewed by sources influencing thoughts. As most are preoccupied filling the void with media influenced story lines. Media has no incentive to create positive news as its realized a revenue model of doom and gloom. People perceive its bad out there but the ones making the decisions actually have it good b/c they are working and earning capital to realize goods and services. So their thoughts are flawed. They have no ability to know what bad really is. What does poor economic GDP really mean? US citizens have no clue what poor economics are, poor economics are when you get bombed every couple of days, put in jail without a fair trail, property rights are determined by AK-47's, and lacking consistent edible food.

Some ultra wealthy understand the flawed human complex and thus can make long term judgments that reflect long term results. The human brain reacts to quickly and without comprehension of reality. Its more likely to choose flight over fight.

The new environment needs limited human interaction and less trading.

As Summer Ends, Back to Investing

After a long career in the institutional asset management business, I retired at the end of 2008. Our parent company, a large mutual fund company, was in the process of doing a strategic review. They were examining whether to stay in the institutional business or to focus solely on the retail mutual funds. Once I saw the writing on the wall I decided to take an early retirement.. The first few months were great fun--a trip to the Rose Bowl to see my favorite college football team and reading a few books I hadn't had time for while working. I also volunteered with some local charities. I delivered meals to the elderly and joined the board of two charitable foundations.

Once the weather got warm the plan was to greatly improve my golf game. Prior to my retirement golf was an outing with brokers. You drank beer while the broker made sure you didn't lose any balls in the woods. After retirement I took some lessons and started playing regularly. While my game was better, my scores weren't-- now I was strictly following the rules. No more mulligans on every other hole,  no more liberally improving your lie and don't forget the penalty strokes. Nevertheless, over time my scores got better and my handicap index declined from a 32 to a 21. Bottom line--I still wasn't very good.

When the second winter rolled around I decided to get a job with a national tax service. I naively thought this would be fun. Having done my own fairly complicated taxes every year, this would be a breeze and would pass the time until the following golf season. My first tax client was an AIDS patient and the next was a single mom. Both returns were very simple 1040EZ's but the fees the company charged them were ridiculous. Neither client had enough money to pay the fee so they were offered a loan that bordered on being predatory. I decided the job was not for me.

With another golf season wrapping up and summer coming to an end, I feel it's time to get back to the investment business.  I am joining with two former trading colleagues on this blog to comment on the market, the economy and recreate the trading desk atmosphere. It is my hope that our musings will be both entertaining and informative to our readers.